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Creators/Authors contains: "Knox, Dean"

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  1. ; ; ; ; ; (, CHANCE)
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  2. ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; (, Science Advances)
    People spend a substantial portion of their lives engaged in conversation, and yet, our scientific understanding of conversation is still in its infancy. Here, we introduce a large, novel, and multimodal corpus of 1656 conversations recorded in spoken English. This 7+ million word, 850-hour corpus totals more than 1 terabyte of audio, video, and transcripts, with moment-to-moment measures of vocal, facial, and semantic expression, together with an extensive survey of speakers’ postconversation reflections. By taking advantage of the considerable scope of the corpus, we explore many examples of how this large-scale public dataset may catalyze future research, particularly across disciplinary boundaries, as scholars from a variety of fields appear increasingly interested in the study of conversation. 
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  3. ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; et al (, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)
    How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. Within each outcome, prediction error was strongly associated with the family being predicted and weakly associated with the technique used to generate the prediction. Overall, these results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences. 
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